"The 21st century has so far seen two simultaneous electoral developments in western Europe: the decline of social-democratic parties and the rise of far-right parties. This has created the powerful narrative that social democrats are losing votes to the far right, in particular because of their (alleged) pro-immigration positions. And although research shows that their voters mainly moved to centre-right and green parties, social-democratic parties have been chasing this mythical left behind voter ever since."
"Research by social scientists overwhelmingly shows that adopting far-right positions leads neither to electoral success for centrist parties nor to electoral defeat for far-right parties. But this has not stopped centre-left advisers, politicians and strategists. Whenever my colleagues and I refer to this research, someone will point to the alleged success of the Danish model. The lure is so great that even as polls were predicting the loss of Copenhagen, Britain's Labour government ignored internal opposition and introduced a number of policies."
Copenhagen elected a Green Left lord mayor, ending over a century of Social Democrat mayors and signalling a shift away from mainstream and far-right options. The 21st century has seen declining social-democratic support alongside rising far-right parties, producing a narrative that social democrats lost voters to the far right over immigration. Empirical research shows former social-democratic voters mainly moved to centre-right and green parties, not the far right. Adopting far-right positions has not produced electoral gains for centrist parties nor reduced far-right support. Denmark's nativist turn under Mette Frederiksen did not deliver a decisive electoral surge, yet other parties have emulated Danish asylum policies.
Read at www.theguardian.com
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