Net migration in Britain has fallen to its lowest level in years, yet many people believe it is increasing. Government figures show net migration dropped from 944,000 in the year to March 2023 to 204,000 in the year to June 2025, with further decreases expected. Research finds a large perception gap: 67% of people with sceptical views on immigration believe net migration increased in 2025, compared with 37% of more liberal views. Six in 10 people who want immigration reduced also believe numbers are still rising. Only 15% expect net migration to be lower in the next year. People overestimate asylum seekers’ share and underestimate students’ share, contributing to a polarised immigration debate.
"Net migration dropped from a peak of 944,000 in the year to March 2023 to 204,000 in the year to June 2025, according to government figures. The latest figures will be published on Thursday morning, and are expected to show a further decrease in net migration. Despite this, a substantial portion of the public believes net migration has increased, creating a chasm between reality and public perception."
"According to British Future's research, 67% of people with sceptical views on immigration believe net migration increased in 2025, compared with 37% of those with more liberal views. It also found six in 10 people who would like to see immigration reduced also believe numbers are still rising. Only 15% of people expect net migration to be lower in the next year."
"The researchers found that people believe individuals seeking asylum account for 33% of immigration, when in reality it is about 9%. They also believe people travelling to the UK for study account for 24% of immigration, when it is in fact just over half. These misperceptions shape how immigration is understood and debated."
"The perception gap is not just shaping the immigration debate but also politics more broadly. It's little wonder voters think net migration is going up when the only debate we have is about how to bring it down. We should be having a conversation about how to manage the pressures and gains of migration to Britain."
Read at www.theguardian.com
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