American consumers are the ultimate losers in the 'immense mess' that is $175 billion tariff refunds, says Trump's former commerce secretary | Fortune
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American consumers are the ultimate losers in the 'immense mess' that is $175 billion tariff refunds, says Trump's former commerce secretary | Fortune
"Late last month, the Supreme Court ruled that President Trump could not use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to levy duties on trading partners and directed revenues to be contested in international trading courts. Already, a bevy of cases have been brought forward by importers seeking to recover some of the duties they paid last year."
"While importers shouldered the initial tariff hit, some or all of that burden likely trickled back to consumers, via wholesalers and retailers. The Yale Budget Lab estimates an implied passthrough of tariff costs to consumers of roughly 40-76% for core goods and 47-106% for durables."
"No two products and their related tariffs have the same mathematical progression. It's gonna have to be probably product by product, which is immensely complex, there are tens of thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands, of iterations. Then you probably have given that guy a windfall, but you haven't done anything to help the ultimate consumer."
The Supreme Court ruled that President Trump cannot use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to levy tariffs, directing revenues to be contested in international trading courts. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and former Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross believe the $175 billion collected will never be returned. Ross warns that refund cases will take years to resolve and ultimately return to the Supreme Court. Even if importers receive rebates, consumers bore much of the tariff burden through wholesalers and retailers, with estimates showing 40-76% passthrough for core goods and 47-106% for durables. Ross emphasizes the complexity of determining which businesses deserve rebates, as tariff calculations vary product by product across tens or hundreds of thousands of iterations.
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