#trade-policy

#trade-policy

These are trying times for corporations. The marketplace is rife with unpredictability, especially when it comes to economic and trade policy. The 2025 World Economic Forum's Chief Economists Outlook report concluded that "uncertainty has become a defining feature of the global economic landscape," with 82% of chief economists gauging uncertainty as "very high." This year, the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, which tracks data from around the world, spiked to its highest level in three decades.

Although the U.S. and China have agreed not to escalate their trade war, Trump's blanket tariffs and the rest of his America First agenda remain in place, and many economists are despairing about the demise of an open trading system that they regard as a key driver of prosperity. But Rodrik, who shot to prominence in the nineteen-nineties as a critic of the untrammelled globalization that helped give Trump his start in Presidential politics, is more upbeat.

If you want the briefest possible explanation of why Democrats lost the presidency and Congress in 2024, it was because swing voters cared a lot about inflation and the politicians running the country decided to talk about everything else. Yes, they had talking points about inflation, but they were mostly defensive (it wasn't as bad as it had been, it was due to circumstances beyond anyone's control, etc.). And they decided to try to force people to think instead about their issues, such as abortion rights and the threat Donald Trump posed to democracy. It didn't work.

We would buy some beef from Argentina,

Bitcoin price has sharply reversed course after reaching a record high above $126,000 just two weeks ago - and the downturn isn't letting up. The price has now slipped into the $104,000 range, extending a multi-day decline that's driven market sentiment to its most cautious level in months. Currently, the bitcoin price is is $105,485, but the price was as low as $103,516 in early morning trading on some exchanges.

By the numbers: Confidence dipped one point from the previous quarter, to 48, per the report from the Conference Board, a nonpartisan think tank and the Business Council, an association of CEOs. A number below 50 reflects more negative than positive responses. 64% of CEOs said that they are preparing for a mild economic slowdown with slightly increased inflation pressure - a one-two punch known as stagflation. Only 22% said they were preparing for a "balanced economy with trend growth and gradual reduction in inflation pressure."

Tesla's price point for its "more affordable" models is still higher than Elon Musk, Tesla's CEO, floated in 2020. The reasons for these sticky prices may be bigger than Tesla. On Tuesday, Tesla launched "standard" versions of the Model Y and Model 3, at $39,990 and $36,990, respectively. The "standard" models are between $5,000 and $5,500 cheaper than the flagship versions - sans Autosteer and a radio - and the market was not enthusiastic.

"China has fired a loaded gun at the American economy, seeking to cut off critical minerals used to make the semiconductors that power the American military, economy, and devices we use every day including cars, phones, computers, and TVs," Moolenaar said. "Every American will be negatively affected by China's action, and that's why we must address America's vulnerabilities and build our own leverage against China."

The EU shocked the UK steel industry on Tuesday with an announcement of 50% import tariffs with no apparent carve-out for metal crossing the Channel. The EU is the UK's biggest customer: 78% of all UK steel exports, or 1.9m tonnes, went to the bloc in 2024. The prospect of punitive tariffs on a large chunk of that would make many British products uncompetitive overnight.

The number of farm operations filing for bankruptcy remains at historically low levels but has jumped sharply this year as a crisis in the agricultural economy drags on. In the second quarter, there were 93 filings, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, up from 88 in the first quarter and nearly double the 47 at the end of 2024.

On Wednesday, Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) sent a letter to Dufour, questioning whether the company invited Trump to the men's finals match in early September as a play to wiggle out of the 39% tariff. She went on to write that the move raises questions about whether you are cultivating a relationship with President Trump in attempts to secure lucrative tariff exemptions for Rolex products.