"From BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 130,000 in January, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, social assistance, and construction, while federal government and financial activities lost jobs. Simply put, normal job creation levels of the past are now looked at as big beats."
"With that said, bond yields did shoot up at first with the 10-year yield, but as the day moved on, yields started to fall and mortgage rates only went up a smidge. The 10-year yield shot up higher after the report, but the 10-year yield has slowly gone lower throughout the day, and since mortgage spreads are good this year, we didn't get much movement on mortgage rates. Mortgage News Daily quoted only a 0.03% hit on rates today"
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 130,000 in January and the unemployment rate remained at 4.3 percent. Job gains were concentrated in health care, social assistance, and construction, while federal government and financial activities lost jobs. Only 181,000 jobs were created in all of 2025, so the January gain appears large relative to a weak prior year. Without healthcare and social assistance, overall job creation would have been negative. Residential construction labor growth is minimal, signaling a negative trend. The 10-year Treasury yield initially rose after the report, then fell, leaving mortgage rates little changed near 6.14%.
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