What even is a 'low-hire, low-fire' environment?

"2025 was defined by reports of a " low-hire, low-fire " environment: the unemployment rate remained fairly low, at just over 4% in December; yet headlines of constant layoffs seemed to dominate the news cycle, and those who are unemployed are taking longer to find work. It's all been very confusing. And the most recent U.S. jobs report, released today, presents more mixed signals. This week's report indicated American employers added 130,000 jobs in January, and the Labor Department reported the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%."

"A low-hire, low-fire economy is defined by low job hirings coupled with low job firings - having slashed 108,435 jobs last month, employers aren't making big moves now in either direction. This kind of economic dynamic results in a lower number of available jobs, which means that those 100,000 people who are out of work may struggle to find something sustainable. That, in turn, could mean that unemployment rates will rise in the coming months."

2025 exhibited a low-hire, low-fire labor environment with unemployment just over 4% in December while frequent layoff headlines persisted and jobseekers faced longer searches. January's report showed employers added 130,000 jobs and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, but annual job creation totaled only 181,000, the lowest since 2020. A low-hire, low-fire economy combines low hirings and low firings; employers cut 108,435 jobs last month yet are not making large moves in either direction. Large corporate cuts at firms such as the Washington Post, Amazon, UPS, and Dow concentrated layoffs, with UPS planning 30,000 and Amazon 16,000 cuts.

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