"The absence will be felt almost immediately, as the government's monthly jobs report scheduled for release Friday will likely be delayed. A weekly report on the number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits - a proxy for layoffs that is typically published on Thursdays - will also be postponed. If the shutdown is short-lived, it won't be very disruptive. But if the release of economic data is delayed for several weeks or longer, it could pose challenges, particularly for the Federal Reserve."
"The Fed cut its rate by a quarter-point earlier this month and signaled it was likely to do so twice more this year. Fed officials said they would keep a close eye on how inflation and unemployment evolve, but that depends on the data being available. A key inflation report is scheduled for Oct. 15 and the government's monthly retail sales report is slated for release the next day."
Federal data releases will be delayed by the government shutdown, removing immediate inputs like the monthly jobs report and weekly unemployment claims. Short shutdowns would be minimally disruptive, but extended delays could impede policy decisions. The Federal Reserve faces conflicting signals: inflation remains above the 2% target while hiring has slowed and unemployment climbed in August. Fed officials may lack fresh federal data before the Oct. 28-29 meeting, when another rate reduction is widely expected. The Fed cut rates earlier this month and signaled further cuts. Important releases include the Oct. 15 inflation report and Oct. 16 retail sales data.
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