Public opinion responds to perceived excesses by shifting direction, often abruptly. A surge of social justice activism followed George Floyd's murder, moving institutions toward reform. A later backlash against perceived "woke" excesses prompted many corporations and cultural institutions to pull back. The thermostatic model also applies to immigration: initial support for large-scale deportation softened as enforcement grew more visible, indiscriminate and lethal. High-profile shootings by immigration agents and widespread corporate condemnations have driven confidence in ICE down and eroded public approval for strict enforcement policies.
"The big picture: American public opinion famously behaves like a thermostat - rising and falling in response to perceived excess by one side. In 2020, George Floyd's murder triggered a surge of protests, corporate activism and police reforms that pushed institutions sharply toward social justice causes. By 2024, backlash to so-called "woke" excesses had become a dominant political force. Much of corporate and cultural America interpreted President Trump's victory as a mandate to stand down."
"Zoom in: The same model of thermostatic opinion applies to America's views on immigration. Trump won on the promise of the largest mass deportation operation in U.S. history - a relatively popular concept after millions of undocumented migrants entered the U.S. under President Biden. But the politics changed - slowly, then sharply - as immigration enforcement became increasingly visible, indiscriminate and lethal."
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