"Without that revenue, CRFB projects the national debt will climb to 125% of GDP-or roughly $58 trillion-by fiscal year 2036, compared to a baseline projection of $56 trillion, or 120% of GDP, that assumed the IEEPA tariffs would remain in force. Deficits in that scenario will rise to 7.1% of GDP, or $3.3 trillion."
"The CRFB analysis shows that at a 10% rate, the Section 122 tariff would generate only about $35 billion over its 150-day window-replacing just 52% of the approximately $65 billion in IEEPA revenue that would have been collected during that same period. Bumping the rate to 15% improves the picture somewhat, producing roughly $50 billion and replacing about 77% of the near-term loss."
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget found that a Supreme Court decision striking down tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) significantly alters the nation's fiscal trajectory. Without this revenue, national debt is projected to reach 125% of GDP, or approximately $58 trillion by 2036, compared to the baseline projection of $56 trillion. Deficits would rise to 7.1% of GDP, or $3.3 trillion annually. In response, the Trump administration invoked Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 to impose emergency tariffs at 10%, with plans to increase to 15%. However, these replacement tariffs generate only $35 billion over 150 days at the 10% rate, replacing just 52% of the lost IEEPA revenue during that period.
#supreme-court-tariff-ruling #federal-budget-deficit #national-debt-projection #trade-policy #fiscal-analysis
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