"You may have traffic flowing through, but the Iranians will likely maintain partial or unilateral control. The standoff is described as 'maritime trench warfare' with both sides using economic coercion to force surrender."
"The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is firing on commercial ships in the Persian Gulf with a 'mosquito fleet' of small fast-attack boats, keeping the strait closed and energy markets in crisis."
"My guess is the North Star on this, and where it goes is: you go from a sloppy ceasefire to a strong, enduring ceasefire and a sloppy peace. A sloppy peace is basically a bunch of half solutions on all the big issues."
The Strait of Hormuz will not return to its previous open status unless Iran's regime collapses. Iran has gained leverage over the global economy by threatening to close the strait. Currently, a ceasefire exists, but tensions remain high with Iran's military actions against commercial ships. The U.S. Navy is enforcing a blockade on Iran-linked vessels. The Gulf Cooperation Council aims to diversify energy routes, as a comprehensive peace deal is unlikely while Iran remains in power.
Read at Fortune
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