"According to a Reuters review of Polymarket's website, $529 million US was laid on a series of contracts tied to the timing of attacks and $150 million was bet on contracts on the removal of Khamenei as supreme leader. Analytics firm Bubblemaps said on X that six accounts made a $1.2-million profit from Polymarket bets funded in the hours before Saturday's raids."
""It's insane this is legal," Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy said on X on Sunday in response to Bubblemaps' post, adding without providing evidence that people around President Donald Trump were profiting from the conflict. "I'm introducing legislation ASAP to ban this.""
""Prediction markets cannot be a vehicle for profiting off advance knowledge of military action. We need answers, transparency and oversight," California Rep. Mike Levin wrote, flagging a Polymarket bet placed shortly before the Iran strikes."
Prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi faced scrutiny after substantial bets were placed on Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's ouster, both in January and immediately before Israeli air strikes on Tehran. Analytics revealed six accounts profited $1.2 million from bets placed hours before the attacks. Democratic lawmakers expressed alarm over the legality and ethics of such trades, citing potential insider trading risks and the ability for officials with advance knowledge to profit. Senator Chris Murphy and Representative Mike Levin called for legislation banning wagers on military actions. The White House defended the Trump administration's decision-making as guided by American interests. Democratic senators previously raised concerns that prediction markets breach U.S. rules and create incentives for conflict and classified information disclosure.
Read at www.cbc.ca
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