"Shortly before the US military launched an attack on Venezuela and captured President Nicolás Maduro, an account on Polymarket made some very suspiciously timed investments. The prediction market had been running bets on when or if Maduro would be removed from power, with prices for "out by January 31, 2026" as low as $0.07 late Friday evening. But within 24 hours of the military action, a newly created account invested tens of thousands of dollars, racking up several hundred thousand in profits."
"The account was created less than a week ago, and invested over $30,000 the day before the assault, turning a profit of over $408,000. The activity was flagged on social media, with people speculating that the person placing the bet was acting on inside information and perhaps even worked at the Pentagon. Joe Pompliano, an investor and podcaster, quickly pointed out on X that "Insider trading is not only allowed on prediction markets; it's encouraged.""
Prediction markets on Polymarket tracked bets on whether President Nicolás Maduro would be removed by January 31, 2026, with contracts trading as low as $0.07. Within 24 hours of a US military action in Venezuela, a newly created account placed tens of thousands of dollars in wagers and turned an investment of over $30,000 into more than $408,000 in profit. The trades were flagged on social media and prompted speculation that the bettor had inside information, possibly from a Pentagon source. Past incidents of obvious insider trading on Kalshi and Polymarket exist, and the platforms have shown little interest in curbing such behavior. Kalshi and Polymarket did not respond to requests for comment.
Read at The Verge
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