"On the night of 27 February, an unusual influx of about 150 accounts on Polymarket placed bets that the US would strike Iran the next day. A New York Times analysis found the bets totaled $855,000, with 16 accounts pocketing more than $100,000 each."
"Traders bet $950m that oil prices would come down right before Donald Trump announced a temporary ceasefire with Iran, and they did. This reflects the growing trend of betting on major geopolitical events."
"The proliferation of online betting markets like Polymarket and Kalshi has allowed bets on virtually any news event, raising concerns over potential insider trading and the need for regulatory oversight."
"Leaders of some US federal agencies and members of Congress expressed a desire to crack down on suspicious trading, questioning whether the issue lies in legislation or enforcement capabilities."
Bets on geopolitical events, such as US airstrikes against Iran, have resulted in substantial financial gains for traders. On 27 February, 16 accounts on Polymarket made $100,000 each by predicting the timing of strikes. A single user later earned over $550,000 betting on Ayatollah Khamenei's downfall before his assassination. The rise of online betting platforms has expanded the scope of betting to include news events, prompting concerns among lawmakers about potential insider trading and the effectiveness of regulatory enforcement.
Read at www.theguardian.com
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