#market-speculation

#market-speculation

Instead of trying to predict whiplashing oil prices, consider investing in energy ETFs like the Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy ETF and First Trust North American Energy Infrastructure. These ETFs provide exposure to sectors such as pipelines and shipping, independent of oil price fluctuations.

Horekunden expressed frustration with the Institute for the Study of War, describing their frontline maps as incoherent and unhelpful for settling bets on Polymarket.

Both experts acknowledge the brewing trouble in the private credit sector, emphasizing that while risks are present, they do not believe a financial crisis is unavoidable.

"The current administration has signaled that it is very pro-business and wants to make it as easy as possible for these new fintech business models such as prediction markets and crypto to operate."

An email was sent to White House staff on 24 March, warning them against using insider information to place bets on prediction markets like Kalshi or Polymarket.

The VIX closed last week at almost 27, an 11% jump on the final trading day, and early signals this week show it climbing further. The fear gauge now sits at its 93rd percentile over the past year, meaning volatility has been this elevated or higher only 7% of trading days in the last 12 months.

A staggering 84.1% of all Polymarket traders are currently in the red, revealing a significant gap between market hype and actual earnings. High-profile wins are extreme outliers, with only 2% of users accumulating more than $1,000 in total profit.

Over time, markets get ahead of themselves. Excitement over AI, green energy, or whatever the next big thing is tends to push stock valuations far beyond what fundamentals justify. Accordingly, more often than not, a correction can be the catalyst that brings valuation discipline back into the discussion. Think of it as the market taking a deep breath.