"When will the U.S. invade Venezuela? When will that country hand over oil to the U.S.? Will Colombia be invaded next? A flurry of bets have been placed on those questions this week on platforms known as prediction markets, following the U.S. military operation in Venezuela last weekend which removed President Nicolas Maduro. The huge sums of money swapped have reignited attention on prediction markets, which allow users to bet on nearly any kind of event, and have shot from small startups to major companies"
"But how to prediction markets work, and how are they regulated? Here's what you need to know. How do they work? Bets on prediction markets are usually binary wagers on a yes/no or higher/lower outcome. On Polymarket, for example, users can bet on everything from whether certain movies will get Oscar nominations, to the fate of the Iranian regime, or the highest temperature in Toronto on a given day."
"The long-term vision is to financialize everything, and create a tradeable asset out of any difference in opinion, said Tarek Mansour, CEO of the prediction market Kalshi, at a conference in late 2025. Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan, right, and UFC CEO Dana White pose for a picture on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York, on Nov. 13, 2025. (Seth Wenig/Associated Press) While there are many such websites, Polymarket and Kalshi are two of the biggest."
Prediction markets enable users to place binary wagers on yes/no or higher/lower outcomes across political, economic, cultural, and weather events. Polymarket and Kalshi are among the largest platforms, offering markets that range from Oscar nominations to regime outcomes and local temperatures. The long-term vision among some operators is to financialize differences of opinion by creating tradable assets tied to event probabilities. Reported monthly betting volume on top platforms rose from about $100 million in early 2024 to over $13 billion. Analysts emphasize that prediction markets differ from sports betting because they do not operate as a traditional house.
Read at www.cbc.ca
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