"The global economy has shown unexpected resilience in the face of Donald Trump's tariffs, but the full impact is yet to be felt, and outlook for growth remains dim, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned. As policymakers gather in Washington for its annual meetings, the IMF has upgraded its forecast for global GDP growth this year to 3.2%, from 3% at its last update in July. Next year's global forecast is unchanged, at 3.1%."
"To date, more protectionist trade measures have had a limited impact on economic activity and prices, the IMF said in its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO). The Fund cited the slow-burn economic impact of Brexit as evidence that the uncertainty unleashed by dramatic policy shifts such as Trump's tariffs may take time to feed through into investment decisions. Business investment continued to grow in the period immediately following the UK's withdrawal from the EU and started to fall steadily only beginning in 2018, it said."
Global GDP growth forecast was upgraded to 3.2% for this year, up from 3.0%, while next year remains at 3.1%. UK growth forecasts were modestly raised to 1.3% this year and set at 1.3% for next year. Protectionist trade measures so far produced limited effects on activity and prices, with delayed impacts expected as uncertainty influences investment decisions. Brexit produced a slow-burning economic effect: business investment grew immediately after withdrawal and began to fall only in 2018. Tariffs were less extreme than feared and their initial impact was masked by households and firms advancing consumption. Major risks include restrictive immigration policies, stretched stock valuations, and delayed tariff effects, keeping near- and long-term prospects dim.
Read at www.theguardian.com
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