Down But Not Out: Iran's Axis of Resistance

"Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) armed, funded, and trained HAMAS, Hizballah, the Huthis, and Iraqi Shia militias to help project Iranian power throughout the region. These groups were bound to Tehran by their Shia faith, shared antipathy toward the US and Israel, and support for fighting what they see as Israel's illegal occupation of Palestinian lands."

"Since 7 October, Israel has severely degraded HAMAS and Hizballah, decimating their senior ranks and military capabilities. After the horrors of HAMAS's attack, Israel was determined to neutralize both groups and began an unrelenting series of attacks and daring operations that have killed their most experienced leaders and commanders and destroyed many of their weapons."

"After two-and-a-half years of conflict, the Axis looks more like a collection of disparate groups pursuing their own ends than a unified Shia force destabilizing the region for Iran's benefit. Nonetheless, pronouncing the Axis dead risks missing the persistent threat these groups pose to US interests."

Following HAMAS's October 7, 2023 attack on Israel, Iran's Axis of Resistance—comprising HAMAS, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iraqi Shia militias—appeared unified in projecting Iranian power. However, two-and-a-half years of conflict have fundamentally altered this dynamic. Israel has severely degraded both HAMAS and Hezbollah through sustained military operations, decimating leadership and capabilities. The fall of Syria's al-Asad regime in December 2024 further weakened Hezbollah by disrupting Iranian supply routes. While HAMAS remained sidelined during recent US-Israel strikes in June 2025, Hezbollah's retaliatory rocket attack following Supreme Leader Khamenei's killing demonstrated continued loyalty to Iran but also provided Israel justification to resume warfare in southern Lebanon.

Read at The Cipher Brief