"It is striking how self-confident Beijing is ahead of this week's Trump-Xi summit. That's because China is better prepared for what I call an age of un-order. This is not the same as disorder, where rules exist but are broken. Un-order is a world where the rules themselves have simply ceased to matter. While European governments have been obsessed with preserving order, China has been working out how to survive chaos."
"China saw this moment coming a decade and a half ago as Europeans outsourced their security to Nato, their trade rules to the World Trade Organisation, and their energy supplies to Russia and the Gulf. At the same time, Beijing was quietly stockpiling oil, food and semiconductors on a massive scale, cornering the global market in rare earths, critical minerals and the technologies of the future."
"All sides are now mesmerised by the theatricality of Trump's US, but an even bigger long-term risk is that China manages to eat Europe's lunch, weaken its defences, deindustrialise its cities and open it up to coercion and blackmail. The scale of Europe's exposure to Chinese dominance is staggering and China's industrial over-capacity and predatory exchange rates make Europe's open markets the main target for Chinese exports."
"Take the industries of the future. The fossil fuel shortfalls caused by the war in Iran are prompting many Europeans to look with renewed interest at their clean energy transition. Yet all the key elements of that transition, from batteries, electric vehicles, solar panels and if action isn't taken soon wind energy supply chains, are dominated by Chinese firms."
The conflict involving the US and Israel and its effects on Iran create major risks for China and Europe. European leaders face rising energy prices and appear unprepared, while China responds with confidence. China is described as prepared for an “age of un-order,” where rules cease to matter, rather than ordinary disorder where rules are broken. China is said to have anticipated this by outsourcing security and trade frameworks to NATO and the WTO and energy supplies to Russia and the Gulf. Beijing allegedly stockpiled oil, food, and semiconductors, and strengthened control over rare earths, critical minerals, and future technologies. The long-term danger is that China could weaken Europe’s defenses, deindustrialize parts of Europe, and increase coercion and blackmail. European exposure is portrayed as especially high because Chinese industrial over-capacity and exchange rates target Europe’s open markets. Clean energy supply chains and rearmament needs are also presented as areas where Chinese firms dominate key components.
Read at www.theguardian.com
Unable to calculate read time
Collection
[
|
...
]