#geopolitics

#geopolitics

as it has little or nothing to do with the economic cycle: it is the financial world's response to the global order proposed by the U.S. president, whose first commandment (or second, depending on the day) is to limit risk. And from political fragmentation and the speed at which it is unfolding a different financial world is emerging, one in which the dollar and the U.S. have lost part of their aura of exceptionalism.

It has been clear for many years that China's status as a second global superpower poses challenges to the world's democracies. Donald Trump's marauding behaviour as president of the first-placed superpower makes those challenges more acute. In the past, the UK's relationship with Beijing has been anchored, and sometimes dictated, by the alliance with Washington. Mr Trump's contempt for former allies, expressed as sabotage of Nato and a scattergun imposition of tariffs, scrambles the old strategic calculus.

THE TITLE OF THE KW SHOW is "RATIO." The term comes from economics, this idea of balance. But I'm applying it to the conflict here in the DRC, which is based around our strategic rare minerals. I'm talking about customs, electronics, space, minerals. In my country, we only ever talk about making phones, about buying a new phone. I advise young people who are looking at the front of their phone-at the screen-to keep the back of their phone in mind;

U.S. President Donald Trump, with his lust for Greenland and hectoring of Europe, thinks the world is at his mercy,and thatthe U.S. is invincible. He's right on the first point. But he discovered this week that he's wrong about the second one. In Davos at the World Economic Forum, Trump climbed down on his Greenland threats after his actions caused chaos in the markets.

"We won't get anything unless I use excessive strength and force, when we would be unstoppable. I won't use force," he said.

Donald Trump has told the Davos economic forum without us, most countries would not even work, but for the first time in decades, many western leaders have come to the opposite conclusion: they will function better without the US. Individually and collectively, they have decided to live in truth the phrase used by the Czech dissident Vaclav Havel and referenced by the Canadian prime minister, Mark Carney, in his widely praised speech at Davos on Tuesday.

Tuesday morning, Bitcoin was trading at around $91,000, which was down around 4.5% over the past five days. It had been trading around $95,000, but took a tumble late Sunday evening, suddenly falling to less than $93,000, and trended downward early Tuesday. Ethereum, or ETH, followed a similar trajectory: ETH values are down almost 8% over the past five days, and are currently trading just north of $3,000. XRP did the same and, as of Tuesday morning, is down roughly 7%.

The weather is sunny and (relatively) warm in Davos, but there's a definite chill in the air. Maybe it's the heightened security. Maybe it's the long lines already forming. Maybe it's that there are reportedly a lot more people here than there have been in a long time. Whatever the case, everyone seems to be on edge. Multiple attendees told me they were already feeling exhausted, as if we were halfway through the week, even though we're just getting started.

Trump continued, pacing now. He spoke of weakness, of maps redrawn by hesitation, of allies who handed away strategic ground and called it diplomacy. If Britain could give up islands in the Indian Ocean, he asked, why should America hesitate in the Arctic? Greenland entered the room like a ghost-vast, white, and suddenly very real.

The European Union and the Mercosur bloc of South American countries formally signed a long-sought landmark free trade agreement on Saturday, capping more than a quarter-century of torturous negotiations to strengthen commercial ties in the face of rising protectionism and trade tensions around the world. The signing ceremony in Paraguay's capital, Asunción, marks a major geopolitical victory for the EU in an age of American tariffs and surging Chinese exports, expanding the bloc's foothold in a resource-rich region increasingly contested by Washington and Beijing.

Meanwhile, signs that the planet's health is worsening are unmistakable. Last year was among the warmest on record globally, with average temperatures far above long-term baselines and heat driving more extreme weather worldwide. In 2025, brutal heatwaves baked much of the Indian subcontinent with temperatures near 48 °C, stressing health systems and agriculture across India and Pakistan. Europe and the Mediterranean faced record wildfires and prolonged heat, forcing tens of thousands to evacuate and worsening drought conditions.

After seizures, sanctions and collapse, can Venezuela ever win back Big Oil's trust? US President Donald Trump says removing President Nicolas Maduro is about reclaiming Venezuela's oil. But as Washington pushes for access, major oil companies are hesitating. Why is Venezuela being labeled uninvestable, and what does that skepticism reveal about power, instability and the future of Venezuela's vast oil reserves?

Climate change which U.S. President Donald Trump calls the greatest con job ever perpetrated in the world is precisely what is driving the push to gain control of Greenland, an ambition openly declared by Trump. Human-caused global warming is reaching record levels in the Arctic region. This triggers ice melt, opening new shipping routes that major powers want to control, as well as theoretically easier access to the island's resources minerals and fossil fuels.

For a world economy driven by consumerism, it's become markedly unkind to consumers. This goes double - literally - for digital tech, where memory prices have increased by between 100 and 250 percent in six months. If you think GPUs are pricey now, you'll only have to wait six weeks, during which both AMD and Nvidia are expected to demonstrate supply-side economics much as the Road Runner demonstrated gravity to Wile E Coyote.

I still like European defence as a theme. The rearmament story is yet to really even begin and whilst we have seen a material rerating in several large defence names on the continent and in the UK, a selloff in the autumn on some fuzzy 'Ukraine peace deal hope' trade is overdone and fails to capture the long-term value in the sector.