#geopolitics

#geopolitics

The French president Emmanuel Macron borrowed some lines from Hugh Grant about bullies at the World Economic Forum in Davos. His target was Donald Trump, who had leaked a conciliatory text message from Macron who, evidently, was trying to get the US president to the table to shore up the rapidly disintegrating global order. In the love-it-or-hate-it Christmas film, Love Actually, Grant playing the foppish British prime minister of the day confronts the US president, saying: A friend who bullies us is no longer a friend, and since bullies only respond to strength, from now onward, I will be prepared to be much stronger.

U.S. President Donald Trump, with his lust for Greenland and hectoring of Europe, thinks the world is at his mercy,and thatthe U.S. is invincible. He's right on the first point. But he discovered this week that he's wrong about the second one. In Davos at the World Economic Forum, Trump climbed down on his Greenland threats after his actions caused chaos in the markets.

"We won't get anything unless I use excessive strength and force, when we would be unstoppable. I won't use force," he said.

Donald Trump has told the Davos economic forum without us, most countries would not even work, but for the first time in decades, many western leaders have come to the opposite conclusion: they will function better without the US. Individually and collectively, they have decided to live in truth the phrase used by the Czech dissident Vaclav Havel and referenced by the Canadian prime minister, Mark Carney, in his widely praised speech at Davos on Tuesday.

Tuesday morning, Bitcoin was trading at around $91,000, which was down around 4.5% over the past five days. It had been trading around $95,000, but took a tumble late Sunday evening, suddenly falling to less than $93,000, and trended downward early Tuesday. Ethereum, or ETH, followed a similar trajectory: ETH values are down almost 8% over the past five days, and are currently trading just north of $3,000. XRP did the same and, as of Tuesday morning, is down roughly 7%.

The weather is sunny and (relatively) warm in Davos, but there's a definite chill in the air. Maybe it's the heightened security. Maybe it's the long lines already forming. Maybe it's that there are reportedly a lot more people here than there have been in a long time. Whatever the case, everyone seems to be on edge. Multiple attendees told me they were already feeling exhausted, as if we were halfway through the week, even though we're just getting started.

Trump continued, pacing now. He spoke of weakness, of maps redrawn by hesitation, of allies who handed away strategic ground and called it diplomacy. If Britain could give up islands in the Indian Ocean, he asked, why should America hesitate in the Arctic? Greenland entered the room like a ghost-vast, white, and suddenly very real.

The European Union and the Mercosur bloc of South American countries formally signed a long-sought landmark free trade agreement on Saturday, capping more than a quarter-century of torturous negotiations to strengthen commercial ties in the face of rising protectionism and trade tensions around the world. The signing ceremony in Paraguay's capital, Asunción, marks a major geopolitical victory for the EU in an age of American tariffs and surging Chinese exports, expanding the bloc's foothold in a resource-rich region increasingly contested by Washington and Beijing.

Meanwhile, signs that the planet's health is worsening are unmistakable. Last year was among the warmest on record globally, with average temperatures far above long-term baselines and heat driving more extreme weather worldwide. In 2025, brutal heatwaves baked much of the Indian subcontinent with temperatures near 48 °C, stressing health systems and agriculture across India and Pakistan. Europe and the Mediterranean faced record wildfires and prolonged heat, forcing tens of thousands to evacuate and worsening drought conditions.

After seizures, sanctions and collapse, can Venezuela ever win back Big Oil's trust? US President Donald Trump says removing President Nicolas Maduro is about reclaiming Venezuela's oil. But as Washington pushes for access, major oil companies are hesitating. Why is Venezuela being labeled uninvestable, and what does that skepticism reveal about power, instability and the future of Venezuela's vast oil reserves?

Climate change which U.S. President Donald Trump calls the greatest con job ever perpetrated in the world is precisely what is driving the push to gain control of Greenland, an ambition openly declared by Trump. Human-caused global warming is reaching record levels in the Arctic region. This triggers ice melt, opening new shipping routes that major powers want to control, as well as theoretically easier access to the island's resources minerals and fossil fuels.

The US President is also at loggerheads with the central bank after Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed that he and the central bank are now under investigation by the Department of Justice over the soaring cost of the central bank's renovation. Chair Powell describes the investigation as politically motivated, pointing to Trump's repeated threats to remove him for not lowering interest rates faster.

For a world economy driven by consumerism, it's become markedly unkind to consumers. This goes double - literally - for digital tech, where memory prices have increased by between 100 and 250 percent in six months. If you think GPUs are pricey now, you'll only have to wait six weeks, during which both AMD and Nvidia are expected to demonstrate supply-side economics much as the Road Runner demonstrated gravity to Wile E Coyote.

I still like European defence as a theme. The rearmament story is yet to really even begin and whilst we have seen a material rerating in several large defence names on the continent and in the UK, a selloff in the autumn on some fuzzy 'Ukraine peace deal hope' trade is overdone and fails to capture the long-term value in the sector.

Euisun Chung, the Executive Chairman at the Hyundai Motor Group, has sounded the alarm on what a difficult year 2026 could become for the car-making game. Not just for Hyundaialthough the South Korean automaker is likely at the top of his list of concernsbut for the entire global auto industry. Things have shifted. Free trade across to one of the brand's largest markets has become less about being free and more about being how well a country can negotiate tariffs for its various industries.

The story presented the Federationa fictional alliance of South American countries whose capital was Caracasas a military superpower that becomes the main enemy of the United States. At the time, this narrative choice sparked considerable controversy in Venezuela, where the newly elected president, Nicolas Maduro, considered that the game was associating his country with a global military threat and symbolically positioning it as an antagonist.

This growing idea that Trump thinks, and so does [Russian President] Putin and so does [Chinese President] Xi, that they should all have their spheres of influence and that other countries should not get involved and they should be able to essentially do what they think is the right thing to do, what they want to do in the interests of their country, in the countries in the surrounding area...

President Donald Trump has brought Americans into an undeclared, unprovoked, illegal, and unconstitutional war against a sovereign country, murdered its citizens, and kidnapped its leader in what Trump called a large scale strike against Venezuela and its President Nicolas Maduro. Why war? For what reason? Trump is pushing our country into war without any explanation. The Constitution requires Trump to go to Congress. Without congressional approval, Trump's actions violate U.S. law.

From Jeff Bezos commandeering Venice for his lavish wedding at a time of a growing backlash over inequality, to the spectacle of Donald Trump returning to office for a second term, the material was endless for cartoonists, though often difficult to navigate. The less surreal included violence against Palestinians in Gaza by Israel, the entrenchment of the Russia-Ukraine war, the threat AI posed to human creativity and the return of the far right across Europe and the US.