"Option two: if they truly believe they're at the end of the string, they could go big and that would mean closing the Strait of Hormuz, conducting terrorist attacks against American diplomats, businessmen and citizens in the region and elsewhere. They could unleash what's left of their proxies, notably the Houthis who could try to shut down shipping again through the Suez Canal."
"Energy analysts have warned that closing the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's oil passes, could send Brent crude prices soaring to $100 a barrel."
"I think the Iranian leadership may feel they are on death ground. I'd look for them to go big. Stavridis also recalled teachings from ancient Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu, who counseled finding a way out of conflicts without actually fighting-but fighting when on death ground."
Iran's leadership confronts an existential threat following U.S.-Israeli airstrikes and Trump's calls for regime change. Currently, Iran is launching fewer missiles and drones compared to its June 2025 response. Military experts identify two strategic paths: Iran can maintain current retaliation levels or escalate dramatically by closing the Strait of Hormuz, conducting terrorist attacks, and deploying proxy forces like the Houthis. Closing the strait, through which 20% of global oil passes, could drive Brent crude to $100 per barrel. U.S. airstrikes targeted Iranian naval assets, potentially limiting Tehran's ability to blockade the strait. Retired Admiral Stavridis suggests Iran may feel cornered on "death ground" and could pursue aggressive escalation.
Read at Fortune
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