Iran's strategic patience tactic failed, what comes next could be far worse

"For years, Iran's leaders believed time was on their side. After the United States withdrew from the 2015 nuclear agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Tehran effectively adopted what later came to be described as a strategic patience approach. Rather than immediately counter-escalating, Iran chose to endure economic pressure while waiting to see whether diplomacy could be revived."

"Today, that assumption lies shattered. The collapse of diplomacy and the outbreak of war have forced Iran's leadership to confront a painful reality: their belief that the US would ultimately act rationally may have been a profound miscalculation. If Iran survives the current conflict, the lessons Iranian leaders draw from this moment may motivate them to pursue a nuclear deterrent."

"When that failed, Tehran began gradually increasing its nuclear activities by expanding enrichment and reducing compliance step by step while still avoiding a decisive break. The pace accelerated after Iran's conservative-dominated parliament passed a law mandating a significant increase in nuclear activities, in the wake of the assassination of top nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh."

Iran adopted strategic patience after the US withdrew from the 2015 nuclear agreement, believing diplomacy could be revived and that Washington would eventually recognize confrontation as counterproductive. Rather than immediately escalating, Tehran endured economic pressure while maintaining nuclear compliance. When diplomacy collapsed and conflict erupted, Iranian leaders confronted a critical miscalculation: their assumption about US rationality proved wrong. This failure of restraint and diplomacy has forced Iran to reconsider its security approach. If Iran survives the current conflict, the lessons from this period may motivate its leadership to pursue nuclear weapons as a deterrent, fundamentally altering regional security dynamics.

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