"Pakistan's mediation could facilitate a coalition of regional states, primarily the Gulf Cooperation Council and Jordan, to conduct military operations aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This scenario arises from economic pressures and the exhaustion of diplomatic avenues, but faces challenges due to the Gulf states' lack of integrated naval power and anti-air capabilities to counter Iran's threats."
"The stability of any military coalition is questionable, as member states may prefer to rely on the military efforts of others, particularly in light of potential Iranian retaliatory strikes on energy infrastructure. This dynamic raises concerns about the effectiveness and unity of a regional response to the crisis."
"Unilateral regional military action carries the risk of escalating tensions, as Iran's forward defense doctrine suggests a readiness to respond aggressively to perceived threats. This could lead to a dangerous cycle of retaliation and further destabilization in the region."
The Strait of Hormuz is central to a geopolitical crisis due to the US-Israeli war on Iran, which began in February 2026. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has threatened vessels, causing significant supply disruptions. Three scenarios emerge: regional military action, joint international operations, and phased negotiations. Pakistan's role as a mediator is vital, especially for regional states considering military operations to reopen the strait. However, capability asymmetry among Gulf states and the risk of escalation complicate unilateral actions against Iran.
Read at www.aljazeera.com
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