#commodities

#commodities

Markets are operating in a fragmented geopolitical environment where security concerns increasingly shape trade, investment, and technology policy. Geopolitical tensions, supply chains disruptions, and intense competition in areas such as artificial intelligence are influencing where capital flows and how risks are priced. Although US growth remains relatively strong, it exists alongside ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, stubborn services inflation, and uneven global policy direction.

While investors fixated on artificial intelligence throughout 2025, the battery supply chain quietly delivered exceptional returns, powering everything from electric vehicles to grid storage. A Supply Chain Play, Not Just an EV Bet Amplify Lithium & Battery Technology ETF (NYSEARCA:BATT) returned 66% year-to-date in 2025, nearly tripling the Nasdaq-100's 22% gain. This performance came from diversified exposure across the entire battery ecosystem: lithium miners, copper producers, battery component manufacturers, and select EV companies.

The biggest macro factor to watch is the global commodity cycle, particularly industrial metals and energy. AVDV's portfolio leans heavily into materials and energy companies across Australia, Canada, and Japan. Gold miners like Perseus Mining and B2Gold appear among the top holdings, alongside coal producer Whitehaven Coal and Canadian energy names like Whitecap Resources. When commodity prices rise, these small-cap value stocks leverage that momentum aggressively.

All strategies mix good days and bumper years with bad days and market-lagging returns. For commodities traders in 2025, it was more of the latter. Conflict in the Middle East caused volatility in oil prices. President Donald Trump's tariff policies, and their uneven implementation, led to fluctuations in the prices of crops, such as soybeans. The growing use of data centers by artificial intelligence giants has changed the outlook for electricity demand so drastically that even top investors in the space are unsure what the future holds.

At Kpler, we are dedicated to helping our clients navigate complex markets with ease. By simplifying global trade information and providing valuable insights, we empower organisations to make informed decisions in commodities, energy, and maritime sectors. Since our founding in 2014, we have focused on delivering top-tier intelligence through user-friendly platforms. Our team of over 700 experts from 35+ countries works tirelessly to transform intricate data into actionable strategies, ensuring our clients stay ahead in a dynamic market landscape.

That comes despite widespread optimism over US-China trade negotiations, which signal the potential for a breakthrough ahead of Trump's meeting with Xi later in the week. In Europe, this morning has seen a German Ifo business climate survey that brought an improved headline figure of 88.4, while the expectations metric rose to the highest level since Feb 2022. However, despite optimism over future business conditions, the worsening of current conditions (85.3) highlights a perception of a struggling economy that many hope will get better.