#uncertainty-reduction

#uncertainty-reduction

An email was sent to White House staff on 24 March, warning them against using insider information to place bets on prediction markets like Kalshi or Polymarket.

A staggering 84.1% of all Polymarket traders are currently in the red, revealing a significant gap between market hype and actual earnings. High-profile wins are extreme outliers, with only 2% of users accumulating more than $1,000 in total profit.

When discussing their results, they tell us that Facebook's reporting or Google Analytics show the ad campaigns as barely breaking even. Yet they keep investing in this channel. They reason that Facebook can only see a fraction of the sales, so if Facebook is reporting a 1x return on ad spend (ROAS) then it's probably at least 2x in reality.

“fireball burning everything in its path”

AI was everywhere, but I wasn't focused on product launches. I was looking at how companies think about data itself: how it's shared, governed and ultimately turned into decisions. And across conversations with executives and sessions on security and compliance, a pattern emerged: the technical limitations that once justified locking data down have largely been solved. What remains difficult is human. Alignment, trust and confidence inside organizations are now the true barriers.

The oil tycoon J. Paul Getty was rumoured to have said that his three rules for how to become rich were: Rise early. Work hard. Strike oil. It's one of those eminently quotable remarks because it captures something we all know to be true, that luck and chance have as much to do with success as anything else. Yet we don't value people for their luck.

Time pressure, limited information, confusion, fatigue, and mortality salience combine to set the stage for decision-making errors, sometimes with grave consequences. An example is the downing of Iran Air Flight 655 by a missile launched by the USS Vincennes in 1988, resulting in the death of 290 passengers and crew. In a time of heightened tension between the U.S. and Iran, the captain of the Vincennes misidentified the airliner as an incoming hostile aircraft and ordered his crew to shoot it down.

I am a worrier, and have been for most of my life. At some point, someone dear and smart teased me that I worry about the wrong things. The things that hit me, she noted, were never the things I worried about. For a while that left me feeling like an incompetent worrier-until my research caught up. I realized that the things I worry about often don't end up hurting me precisely because worrying helps me diffuse them ahead of time.

Ever since our ancestors first stood upright and squinted at the horizon, we've been wired to notice patterns. A rustle in the grass might have meant a stalking predator. Dark clouds often meant rain. Those who made these connections and guessed that one thing caused another tended to survive. Over time, this ability to link events became one of our most significant evolutionary advantages. It's how we built tools, tamed fire, and eventually invented Wi-Fi.