"A sweeping economics paper found that top economic experts are increasingly factoring extreme AI disruption into their models, indicating a shift in perspective on AI's impact on jobs."
"The study surveyed 69 economists, 52 AI specialists, and 38 superforecasters, revealing that all groups expect significant progress on AI in the coming years."
"Economists assigned a 47 percent probability of moderate AI progress by 2030, with expectations of systems operating semi-autonomously and producing high-quality creative works."
"The median economist surveyed expected a 1.6 percent decrease in the overall labor force due to AI advancements, highlighting concerns about job displacement."
Economists have historically been skeptical about AI's impact on jobs, but recent research indicates a shift in perspective. A study involving economists, AI specialists, and superforecasters found a consensus on the likelihood of significant AI advancements. The groups predict that faster AI development correlates with lower employment rates. Economists estimate a 47 percent chance of moderate AI progress by 2030 and a 14 percent chance of rapid progress, which could drastically change job dynamics. The median expectation is a 1.6 percent decrease in overall labor force participation due to AI.
Read at Futurism
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