#economic-forecasting

#economic-forecasting

The think tank highlighted that the Bank of England may face a new inflationary "shock" from rising energy costs, which could complicate Chancellor Rachel Reeves's economic plans. Energy markets have become volatile since tensions escalated between the United States, Israel, and Iran. Iran has threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global shipping route, while Qatar Energy has suspended liquefied natural gas production following reported attacks on its facilities.

Economic forecasting has never been easy, and it becomes even more challenging in the face of unprecedented events like COVID-19 lockdowns and extraordinary levels of fiscal and monetary intervention. This was followed by a rapid cycle of interest rate hikes, adding further complexity. Look no further than the fact that for three consecutive years ( 2022, 2023, and 2024) economic forecasts at large significantly underestimated mortgage rates. Recently, however, forecasters have fared better.

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