The next 14 trading sessions include jobs reports, a key inflation reading and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, creating a critical window for market direction. The S&P 500 posted its weakest monthly gain since March and heads into September, historically its worst month, despite touching an all-time high of 6,501.58 on Aug. 28 and rising 9.8% for the year after a 30% rally since an April 8 low. Volatility has largely vanished, with the VIX above 20 only once since June and no 2% selloff in 91 sessions. Some strategists expect a 5%–10% pullback in the fall before a year-end rebound toward roughly 6,800–7,000. A Bureau of Labor Statistics revision marked down nonfarm payrolls for May and June by nearly 260,000, drawing additional market attention.
The next few weeks will give Wall Street a clear reading on whether this latest stock market rally will continue - or if it's doomed to get derailed. Jobs reports, a key inflation reading and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision all hit over the next 14 trading sessions, setting the tone for investors as they return from summer vacations.
At the same time, volatility has vanished, with the Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, trading above the key 20 level just once since the end of June. The S&P 500 hasn't suffered a 2% selloff in 91 sessions, its longest stretch since July 2024. It touched another all-time high at 6,501.58 on Aug. 28, and is up 9.8% for the year after soaring 30% since its April 8 low.
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