The S&P 500 rose 67.82% on a price basis from inauguration day to the end of Trump's first term, gaining 9.27% in the first six months and 24.15% after one year. Trade tensions with China caused corrections, but the market recovered as company earnings continued to grow.
The current pressure is largely driven by tensions in the Middle East, as signals from the U.S. and Iran remain conflicting. While the U.S. has indicated that negotiations are ongoing, Iran has firmly denied any talks, increasing uncertainty around the prospects of de-escalation.
By the numbers: The S&P 500 climbed 15.7% between Trump's second inauguration day and last Friday, which marked the final trading day of his first year in office. It was up 24.1% during the first year of his prior term, and up 19.3% during Biden's first year. Obama outperformed them both with a 35.9% gain. Zoom in: Other indices were kinder to Trump 2.0, at least compared to his Democratic predecessors.
Live Coverage Updates appear automatically as they are published. Live Updates Most of the major indices are green again. The S&P 500 0.17%, as it nears record highs. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF ( SPY) is up about 0.14%. The Dow is down a fraction of a point, with the Nasdaq also up half a percent. The S&P 500 could easily hit 7,000 today, which is just a few points off.
The VanEck Semiconductor ETF ( NASDAQ:SMH) is one of the best-performing ETFs of the last five years and has gained 53% in the past year, beating the S&P 500. It jumped over 220% in the past five years and is exchanging hands for $378 today. As the semiconductor sector boomed, this ETF had some of its best days. It is set for another winning year and could beat the S&P 500 again.
The S&P 500 is currently on track to close out 2025 in just under 10 days with a 16% gain, marking three years in a row of double-digit returns, something investors have taken full advantage of. Following 2023's 24.2% return and 2024's 23.3% surge, the index will likely end up with a three-year cumulative gain of around 77.5%. If you were an investor who has stuck to the course, even through all of the early tariff madness, you've likely done pretty well.
The S&P 500 closed up 0.46% yesterday to hit a new record of 6,909.79. The index is now up 17.48% for the year. With only the quiet Christmas week left before the end of the year it's likely that investors will mark this down in their spreadsheets as a very good year.Unless, of course, they have a friend who bought gold at or before the beginning of 2025.
He's taking 25% of the money he previously invested in S&P 500 index funds-a meaningful chunk for a self-made millionaire -and moving it into a more diversified set of assets, including: S&P 500 value index funds, which tilt toward companies with lower valuations and less AI-driven hype. Mid-cap stocks, which he believes could benefit if smaller firms catch more of AI's productivity gains. International index funds, offering exposure outside the U.S. tech-heavy market.
With a good deal of momentum, the S&P 500 could easily test 7,000 before the end of 2025. All thanks to momentum, the potential for more interest rate cuts, and a possible Santa Claus rally. Other analysts, including Fundstrat Global Advisors' Tom Lee, say we could reach 7,300. In fact, he just told CNBC, "7,000 is only 2% for S&P. From here, I think 5% or maybe even 10% is possible in December," as quoted by Seeking Alpha.
