When you are 20 or so points behind in the opinion polls calling an election before you need to do so is a high-risk strategy. Yet Rishi Sunak has decided that holding on until the autumn is an even bigger gamble.
The economy decides elections, and as far as the prime minister is concerned, this could be as good as it gets. Growth in the first three months of 2024 was 0.6% and surveys have suggested improvement will continue into the second quarter.
Plan B involves convincing voters that a fledgling recovery is for real and that Britain's hard-won stability will be jeopardised by a Labour victory. Growth in the first three months of 2024 was 0.6%.
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