"Yes, it would have to be rates for some reason or other jumping up. I find that remarkably unlikely. I don't think that would happen. Price growth jumping to a point whereby affordability declines further? I don't see that happening either. So I think all in all, modest improvement across the board is one that is the most likely scenario."
"Certainly, I think that comments being made by the administration could have an impact on the equity markets and on the global markets as well, so not sure about that. We've obviously got a new fed chair coming in. We don't know who it is, although I've got a pretty good guess. And so there's going to be some concerns there as to whether the Fed will continue to be independent. That can have an issue on financial markets as well."
Interest rates would need to rise sharply for the outlook to change; such a rise is considered unlikely. Rapid price growth that further erodes affordability would also alter the outlook, but that scenario appears unlikely. The most probable outcome is modest, broad-based improvement. Political statements from the administration could influence equity and global markets. The arrival of a new Federal Reserve chair creates uncertainty about the Fed's independence, which could affect financial markets. Geopolitical hiccups remain possible. Absent a major economic downturn, a slow and steady path is expected.
#interest-rates #housing-affordability #federal-reserve-independence #equity-markets #geopolitical-risk
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