#geopolitical-risk

#geopolitical-risk

TSM's growth story in 2025 hinges on artificial intelligence (AI) demand, which has transformed the company from a steady foundry into an indispensable AI enabler. Second-quarter revenue hit $30.1 billion, a 44% year-over-year jump that exceeded analyst forecasts. This beat stemmed from robust orders for advanced nodes like 3-nanometer (nm) and 5nm, which power Nvidia's GPUs and Apple's latest processors. Advanced technologies, defined as 7nm and more advanced technologies, accounted for 74% of total wafer revenue.

When President Trump returned to the White House his intention was clear: Make America Great Again. But the United States's economic partners, and some of its rivals, are also benefitting from having the unorthodox showman back in the Oval Office. Investors are watching the U.S. stock market with both enthusiasm and trepidation: The S&P 500 is up 15% over the past year, Treasuries have remained relatively steady, and the Fed's monetary policy is expected to begin a downwards trajectory.

The recent Jackson Hole symposium played an important role, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged rising risks to the labor market while leaving the door open to policy easing should economic data continue to weaken. This "cautiously dovish" message was interpreted by markets as a signal for a potential rate cut as early as September, providing strong momentum for U.S. equities.

"Hedge funds have had an emotionally turbulent ride in 2025, starting the year with soaring interest from big investors and optimism for the incoming Donald Trump administration. That optimism did not last long, however, as the President's tariff policies disrupted global trade and sent markets into a frenzy."

The feeble response from mainstream liberal parties is entirely dissonant with the gravity of the moment, creating an eerie calm amid the escalating chaos.