NASA has identified asteroid 2024 YR4 as the most concerning near-Earth object, with a 3.1% chance of impact in 2032. This assessment is echoed by the European Space Agency, providing a slightly lower risk estimate of 2.8%. While uncertainties are common as data is refined, such a significant impact probability has not been observed since the notorious Apophis. The asteroid, measuring approximately 350 meters, has maintained a risk level due to improved understanding of its orbit, currently rated at a 3 on the Torino Scale for potential hazards.
For asteroids larger than 30 metres (98.4 feet) in size, 2024 YR4 now holds the record for the highest impact probability reached, and the longest time spent with an impact probability greater than 1%.
It is important to note that this rising impact probability is an expected result as we continue to improve our knowledge of the asteroid's orbit. … As more observations are gathered, probabilities may fluctuate.
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