My argument is that any practical use of probability involves subjective judgements. This doesn't mean that I can put any old numbers on my thoughts - I would be proved a poor probability assessor if I claimed with 99.9% certainty that I can fly off my roof, for example... the objective world comes into play when probabilities and their underlying assumptions are tested against reality.
Some assumptions that people use to assess probabilities will have stronger justifications than others. If I have examined a coin carefully before it is flipped, and it lands on a hard surface and bounces chaotically, I will feel more justified with my 50-50 judgement than if some shady character pulls out a coin and gives it a few desultory turns.
Riffing off George E. P. Box's 'All models are wrong, but some are useful', Spiegelhalter concludes, 'In our everyday world, probability probably does not exist - but it is often useful to act as if it does.'
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