The conflict between Israel and Iran poses a significant risk of escalating interconnected wars in the Red Sea region, potentially destabilizing the Horn of Africa, which is in deep crisis. Iranian support for the Houthi rebels in Yemen, who ally with the Al-Shabab militia in Somalia, illustrates a complex web of relationships affecting conflicts in Africa. Analysts express concern that diminishing foreign policy attention and humanitarian support from the West may lead vulnerable African nations to fall deeper into crisis amid increasing regional tensions.
"If the conflict between Israel and Iran escalates further, there is a risk that the various interconnected wars around the Red Sea could also expand," Hendrik Maihack states. He emphasizes that the greatest danger would be to the Horn of Africa, a region currently in its deepest crisis in nearly 30 years. In his analysis, interconnected alliances between Iran, the Houthi rebels in Yemen, and Al-Shabab militia in Somalia intensify the complexities of these conflicts. He asserts that Germany and Europe must broaden their focus beyond the Middle East and Ukraine.
Guido Lanfranchi from the Clingendael Institute notes that the cooperation between the military Houthi group and the Al-Shabab terrorist militias in Somalia has intensified and this appears to be in the interest of both groups. However, he also mentions uncertainty regarding the extent of Iran's ability to maintain this support for the Houthis, which complicates regional stability.
The Horn of Africa and Red Sea regions are identified as geo-strategically important for both Iran and Israel, with Lanfranchi highlighting Iran's supply of weapons to the Sudanese Armed Forces as a further concern. The interconnectedness of these conflicts poses a significant threat to Europe, especially as conflicts in Africa are said to be increasing rather than decreasing.
"Where foreign policy attention and resources for humanitarian and development cooperation diminish, many African countries fear falling further out of the spotlight of Western support," Maihack explains. He warns that the ramifications of Middle Eastern conflicts could exacerbate crises like the hunger crisis in Sudan, impacting regions already facing severe challenges.
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