The smartphone market is projected to grow 1% in 2025 versus 2024, reaching roughly 1.24 billion shipments, led by a 3.9% increase in iPhone volumes. The forecast improved from 0.6% largely because iPhones are expected to sell better. Replacement demand will support 1.2% growth in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, then slow to 1.6% in 2028 and 1.4% in 2029. Regional gains include the US (3.6%), Middle East and Africa (6.5%), and APAC excluding China (0.8%), offsetting a 1% decline in China as subsidies phase out. Average selling price rises 5%, revenue increases 6%. Over 370 million GenAI smartphones (30% share) will sell, and foldable shipments will grow modestly but remain under 3% of total shipments by 2029.
The smartphone market will grow 1% in 2025 compared to 2024, IDC now predicts, and this growth will be driven by iPhone shipments, which are expected to be up 3.9% year-on-year (YoY). IDC expects the total number of smartphone shipments to reach 1.24 billion this year. The 1% growth prediction is an improvement from the analyst house's previous forecast of 0.6%, and the difference seems to be more or less entirely down to iPhones being expected to sell better.
Coming back to this year, there will be strong (3.6%) growth in the US, as well as the Middle East and Africa (6.5%), and 0.8% growth in Asia Pacific excluding China. All of this growth will help offset the predicted 1% decline in shipments in China. Previously, IDC forecasted 3% YoY growth in China, but this has now been revised due to the subsidies being phased out.
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