The ongoing memory chip shortage is about to lead to a drastic drop in smartphone shipments this year. According to the latest forecast from TrendForce, the market will see a 10% drop in global smartphone shipments, which would result in an estimated 1.135 billion units shipped for the calendar year. There is, however, an even worse turn of events, which could see the drop go as low as 15%, which TrendForce describes as the "Bear-case scenario".
Global smartphone shipments recorded 4% growth in Q4, 2025, as the market was able to absorb rising component costs. According to preliminary data shared by Omdia, Apple was the runaway leader in terms of shipments and reached a record 25% market share. That means 1 in every 4 phones shipped in the last three months of 2025 was an iPhone.
As expected, Apple became the biggest smartphone maker globally with a 20% share - in other words, 1 in every 5 smartphones shipped in 2025 had the Apple logo on its back. Indeed, Apple shipments grew the most (among the Top 5) during the year, going up 10% year-on-year.
Counterpoint Research has revised down its 2026 smartphone shipment forecast to a 2.1 percent decline, citing a tightening supply of memory chips that is driving up costs and squeezing manufacturers. The analyst firm says higher DRAM and NAND prices risk undermining confidence across the market, particularly as smartphone vendors struggle to justify higher prices for devices that to many feel marginally different from the ones already in their pockets.
A total of 1.25 billion smartphones will be shipped in 2025, which represents a 1.5% increase compared to the figures for 2024. The latest International Data Corporation (IDC) report reflects an updated forecast that is reportedly driven by Apple's continued success with the iPhone 17 series. Cupertino is now forecasted to push over 247 million iPhone 17 series units in 2025, driven by favourable demand factors like an accelerated push in the holiday quarter, alongside growing demand in emerging markets and in China.
