The author reflects humorously on their dismal track record in predicting Super Bowl outcomes, revealing a 72% failure rate over 25 years. They recount memorable losses, attributing many poor picks to sentimental choices rather than statistics. Highlighting their history of incorrect predictions, the author urges readers to bet against them, emphasizing that their reliance on narratives instead of data often leads to poor outcomes. They acknowledge the emotional investment fans place in their predictions, while noting the reality of their incorrect choices.
History doesn't lie. I have written 25 Super Bowl prediction columns. I have been wrong 18 times, which means you have a 72% chance of cashing a wager against me.
By betting on the best story instead of the best stats, that’s how. By being more sentimental than smart.
I once missed on 11 consecutive picks. How do you blow 11 consecutive picks? By betting on the best story instead of the best stats.
Remember when the Buffalo Bills lost four straight? I picked them three times. I loved their story. I embraced their courage. I lost my mind.
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