Why are MLB's free-agent contracts often beating projections this offseason?
Briefly

With back-end starting rotation options pulling in deals in the $30-40 million range, smaller-market teams are increasingly turning to trades to add talent.
The difficulty lies in predicting a player's free agent market value; comparing them to similar players and adjusting for inflation is essential yet challenging.
Both traditional and newer approaches to assessing a player's worth have fallen short this season, with actual signings exceeding forecasts by significant margins.
This year's free agent market has shown an important trend: actual prices for players have surged well beyond predictions, leading to concerns for team management.
Read at www.nytimes.com
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