Why Russia May Be Running Out of Time in Ukraine

"More than three and a half years into the Russia-Ukraine War, Russia is pummeling Ukrainian cities from the air with ever more force, while retaining an advantage on the battlefield in the east - though it is far from achieving a significant breakthrough. Ukraine has found success striking Russian oil refineries deep in the country and may receive longer-range missiles from the Trump administration, which has been more focused on negotiating peace in Gaza after a summit with Putin in Alaska failed to yield results."

"These developments may not seem seismic on their face, but Nigel Gould-Davies thinks they signal a major shift. Gould-Davies, a Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies who has served as the U.K. ambassador to Belarus, wrote recently that foreign-policy setbacks and economic challenges have put Russia in a bind, which "compels it to accelerate its theory of victory - to grind down Ukraine militarily and outlast the West politically - before the window for winning closes forever.""

"I would look first at the new things that are happening and work backwards to the underlying conditions that are impelling Russia to behave this way. What we observe is this sudden and very striking escalation of drone and even fighter incursions. These things aren't entirely new - what's entirely new is the scale of them. The second thing that's going on is this sudden intensification of drone and missile"

Russia has intensified aerial bombardment and drone strikes more than three and a half years into the conflict, maintaining an edge in the east without securing a decisive breakthrough. Ukraine has successfully targeted Russian oil refineries deep inside Russia and may receive longer-range missiles from the U.S. administration. Russian drones and aircraft have crossed into multiple NATO countries, prompting Europe to reassess collective defense options. Diplomatic setbacks and economic pressures are constraining Russia and appear to be driving a strategy to accelerate military pressure to wear down Ukraine and erode Western political resolve.

Read at Intelligencer