"The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate sits at 6.19%, down from 6.54% a year ago. While that decline represents some welcome relief for homebuyers, economists at Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) believe most of the short-term mortgage rate relief is already behind us. Both Fannie Mae and the MBA released 2026 forecasts this month showing not much change from here."
"There's a potential wildcard-an economic slowdown. If joblessness were to climb faster than anticipated or if the economy were to meaningfully deteriorate, that could put additional downward pressure on both Treasury yields and mortgage rates. In that scenario, mortgage rates could dip more than the baseline forecasts suggest. The "mortgage spread" represents the difference between the 10-year Treasury yield and the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate. Last week, the spread stood at 218 basis points."
Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.19%, down from 6.54% a year ago. Fannie Mae projects an average 30-year fixed rate of 5.9% by Q4 2026, a 0.3 percentage-point decline from current levels. The Mortgage Bankers Association forecasts an average 6.4% by late 2026, implying a slight uptick. Both organizations foresee only modest labor-market softening, with unemployment projected at 4.4% (Fannie Mae) and 4.6% (MBA) by end of 2026. A deeper economic slowdown or rising joblessness could push Treasury yields and mortgage rates lower. The mortgage spread recently stood at 218 basis points.
Read at Fast Company
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