"As tariffs weigh on the economy, consumer confidence softens and the labor market cools, gross domestic product growth is expected to slow further, which is prepping the market for lower mortgage rates. Mortgage originations recently climbed to their highest quarterly level since 2022, with both purchase and cash-out refinance volumes nearing three-year highs, according to ICE Mortgage Technology's August Mortgage Monitor report."
"The firm projects total mortgage volume to surpass $2 trillion in 2025 for the first time since 2022, driven by a 48% increase in refinances and a 12% rise in purchase loans good for a total volume gain of 20% compared to 2024. By 2026, refinance activity is expected to grow another 24% and purchase volume will rise 2.3%, pushing total loan counts up nearly 10% year over year."
Forecasts indicate shifting economic conditions for 2026, with tariffs, softening consumer confidence, and a cooling labor market expected to slow GDP growth and enable lower mortgage rates. Mortgage originations recently returned to their highest quarterly level since 2022, with purchase and cash-out refinance volumes nearing three-year highs. Total mortgage volume is projected to exceed $2 trillion in 2025, driven by a 48% increase in refinances and a 12% rise in purchase loans, a 20% gain versus 2024. By 2026, refinances are projected to grow another 24% and purchases to rise 2.3%, lifting loan counts nearly 10% year over year. Affordability challenges will persist for first-time buyers, and recoveries will vary by locality down to the census-tract level.
Read at www.housingwire.com
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