America's housing market decline is 'no longer just a Sun Belt story'-LA and Dallas are tumbling, too | Fortune

The decline in home prices has shifted from being concentrated in Sun Belt markets to appearing in additional regions. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index fell 0.2% month over month in March for a second straight decline, while annual appreciation slowed to 0.8%. Momentum weakened further, with the three-month annualized rate turning negative. Los Angeles and Washington, D.C. posted annual declines, joining markets such as Tampa and Dallas. Demand has weakened as nearly 20% of new homes saw price cuts in the fourth quarter of 2025, especially in the South and West. Even mortgage rates briefly dropping below 6% did not revive buyer activity, and about 80% of mortgage holders have rates above the pre-2022 sub-4% level, limiting selling and keeping inventory constrained.

"The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index fell 0.2% month-over-month in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, the second consecutive monthly decline. The annual pace of appreciation slipped to just 0.8%, and the three-month annualized rate - a cleaner read on momentum - collapsed to -0.2% from 2.3% the month prior."

"More striking than the national numbers is where the weakness is now showing up. Los Angeles posted a 1.6% annual decline. Washington, D.C. turned negative. Both are now joining markets like Tampa (-1.9%) and Dallas (-1.7%) in the red. Capital Economics, which cut its full-year U.S. home price growth forecast to 1% from 3%, and North America economist Thomas Ryan wrote that the deterioration is "no longer just a Sun Belt story.""

"Nearly 20% of new homes saw price cuts in the fourth quarter of 2025, concentrated in the South and West, Fortune reported in February, with Texas accounting for a disproportionate share of listings with price reductions. Even a brief dip in mortgage rates to below 6% failed to bring buyers off the sidelines, as January existing home sales cratered despite the momentary rate relief."

"The structural freeze runs deeper still: as Fortune reported, roughly 80% of mortgage holders are sitting on rates above the pre-2022 sub-4% threshold, leaving would-be sellers locked in and inventory stubbornly constrained."

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