The article discusses the complex relationship between geopolitical events, such as the U.S. bombing Iran, and the housing market's response to economic indicators. Experts note that while typically wars lead to rising oil prices and safer investments in U.S. Treasuries, recent historical patterns, particularly since the COVID-19 pandemic, show unpredictable influences on mortgage rates. Notably, despite significant news events, market reactions have been muted, suggesting a disconnect between expectations and actual investor behavior. As the Federal Reserve contemplates a rate cut, experts see continued uncertainty in the economic landscape affecting predictions.
Historically speaking, geopolitical issues like war typically cause oil prices to rise and uncertainty in the market, pushing investors into safer assets like U.S. Treasuries.
Since the COVID-19 pandemic, it has been hard to predict how global events will impact rates and buyer behavior, as normal historical trackers are not accurately reflecting market trends.
The markets have not paid much attention to the bombings, with oil prices down, which is deflationary, and bond yields lower due to a potential Fed rate cut.
There’s a lot of uncertainty in the market, and it’s making it difficult to predict what’s going to happen next, especially with recent geopolitical events.
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