China Against Everybody: The New Geopolitics of Rare Earth Elements

Rare earth supply chains include mining, separation of light and heavy elements, processing complicated by radioactive uranium and thorium, metallizing, and magnet-making. China controls every step, including heavy rare earth processing for dysprosium and terbium, with new capacity located in Canada where permits move faster than U.S. EPA approval. Domestic capacity expansion is described as impossible to build overnight, and radioactive-materials permitting has caused companies to drop plans for U.S. processing plants. Prediction markets indicate China will not announce rare earth export relief around a Trump-Xi summit, while other markets show willingness to trade aircraft purchases. MP Materials is positioned as the closest U.S. vertically integrated option, reporting strong revenue growth, record NdPr production, and rapid Magnetics segment expansion, supported by a Department of Energy price protection agreement.

"It used to be oil and OPEC. It's now, OPEC includes many countries, so there are checks and balances. Here you have China against everybody."

"Rare earth magnets sit inside missiles, iPhones, and humanoid robots. The supply chain runs through mining, separation of light and heavy elements, processing complicated by radioactive uranium and thorium, metallizing, and magnet-making. China controls every step, and Sternheim's own heavy rare earth processing for dysprosium and terbium is being built 35 kilometers from Uranium City in Saskatchewan because Canadian permits move faster than EPA approval."

"Lynas dropped plans for a Texas processing plant this year over radioactive-materials permitting, and Sternheim's summary is blunt: building domestic capacity "overnight is an impossibility." Prediction markets agree, as Polymarket's question on whether China would announce rare earth export relief by May 22, around the Trump-Xi summit, resolved "No" with a final price of 0.001 on volume of 55,632."

"MP Materials ( NYSE:MP) is the closest thing the U.S. has to a vertically integrated answer. Q1 2026 revenue hit $90.65 million, up 49% year over year, with adjusted EPS of $0.03 versus a -$0.01 estimate, the fourth straight beat. NdPr production set a record at 917 metric tons, and the Magnetics segment grew 306% year over year."

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