Consumers will spend less this Black Friday, kicking off an uncertain holiday season

"This Thursday, November 27, the United States will celebrate Thanksgiving, marking the start of a holiday season in which consumers are more worried than ever about their finances. A Deloitte survey shows that shoppers plan to spend 4% less during the two major U.S. shopping events Black Friday and Cyber Monday held over Thanksgiving weekend. Data from the polling firm indicates that 2025 marks a significant trend shift because household spending intentions nationwide used to increase year after year."

"Both ends of the socioeconomic spectrum are expected to cut back. Consumers earning around $50,000 a year will spend 12% less than in 2024, while those making over $200,000 say they will reduce their spending by up to 18%. Inflation has been rising since April, according to official figures, reaching an annual rate of 3% in September. U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff war has been one of the causes of the price increases that have left Americans oscillating between frustration and uncertainty."

"Consumer confidence is at rock bottom. A University of Michigan study shows sentiment in November at its lowest recorded levels, just slightly above the June 2022 minimum. The survey highlighted that people are particularly worried about their jobs and personal finances: 69% fear unemployment will rise next year (twice as many as last year), and they expect inflation to reach 4.5% in 2026."

Shoppers plan to spend 4% less during Black Friday and Cyber Monday in 2025, reversing previous yearly increases in household spending intentions. Consumers at both socioeconomic extremes expect cuts: households earning about $50,000 forecast 12% lower spending while those earning over $200,000 expect up to an 18% reduction. Inflation rose from April and reached 3% annually in September. Tariff policies contributed to price increases, though recent tariff cuts on Brazil aim to lower prices for meat, coffee and fresh products. Consumer confidence sits near record lows, with 69% fearing rising unemployment and expectations of 4.5% inflation in 2026.

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