The U.S. labor force is approximately 170 million, with federal employees comprising about 3 million, or 1.8%. Job cuts among federal employees, even if reaching 10%, would minimally affect the unemployment rate. Predictions suggest an increase in the rate to about 4.3% if such cuts occur. However, further job losses could stem from tariffs imposed on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, potentially eliminating an additional 400,000 jobs. The article highlights the complex interplay between federal employment and external economic factors like trade tariffs.
Jobs cuts among federal employees are unlikely to boost the unemployment rate much. However, combined with layoffs due to tariffs, that might be a different story.
If cuts reach 10% of all federal employees, unemployment would rise by about 300,000 people. Unemployment, which was 4% in January, might rise to 4.3% or 4.4% at the most.
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