The article discusses the challenges of making economic forecasts in light of increased uncertainty due to U.S. President Donald Trump's trade policies, particularly tariffs. The WTO warns that these tariffs could result in a 0.2% decline in global merchandise trade this year, reflecting broader anxieties about economic fragmentation, especially between the U.S. and China. With potential tariff changes pending negotiations, the report indicates that projections for 2025 are considerably more pessimistic, revealing the overarching impact of geopolitical tensions on global economic stability.
Economic forecasts are organized mirages; predictions in troubled times resemble a short-sighted person's view of the horizon, overflowing with uncertainty.
The WTO estimates merchandise trade will decline by 0.2% this year due to new U.S. tariffs, reflecting the anxiety gripping the global economy.
Okonjo-Iweala warns that the U.S.-China trade war risks dragging the world into recession, urging caution against economic fragmentation.
The new forecast for 2025 is nearly three percentage points lower than what it would have been without recent changes, indicative of growing uncertainty.
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