In five of the seven swing states, and nationally, the final averages of polls aggregated by The New York Times missed the actual presidential election margin by less than three percentage points. All of the swing state results were within the typical margin of error, suggesting that while perceptions of polling may be skewed, the actual data was relatively accurate. The results lead to a mixed sentiment about polling effectiveness this election cycle.
Pollsters graded the industry's performance this year between a C+ and an A-, reflecting a cautious optimism about polling methodologies. The overarching belief among experts is that every election cycle offers a chance to improve polling methods, adding a layer of resilience to the industry despite public skepticism.
David Paleologos rated the polling B+, indicating that while the margins in swing states were indeed very close, acknowledging the overall trend of tight races reflects the current political climate of a divided electorate.
Ashley Koning stated that relying on phone calls for polling has become insufficient due to the changing demographics and communication preferences of the population, emphasizing the need for adaptation in polling approaches as society evolves.
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