"Flashback: In the last round of projections, issued in June, the median official anticipated two rate cuts in the second half of the year, but there was a wide range of opinion - including seven officials out of 19 who didn't think any rate cuts would be justified. Since then, inflation has proceeded broadly as expected. But job creation has taken a major step down, clearing the way for more consensus among policymakers that it's time to make monetary policy less restrictive."
"It is also a distinct possibility that nominee Stephen Miran (if confirmed in time) will dissent in favor of a supersized rate cut, and that one or both of President Trump's appointees on the board (that would be Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller) would join him. Hawkish dissents - favoring leaving rates unchanged - look less likely but can't be ruled out by the likes of Kansas City Fed president Jeffrey Schmid or his St. Louis counterpart Alberto Musalem."
Quarterly Federal Open Market Committee projections will reveal policymakers' views on additional rate cuts this year amid persistent price pressures. In June, the median official expected two cuts in the second half, though a wide spread of opinions included several officials opposing any cuts. Inflation has proceeded broadly as expected while job creation has slowed markedly, increasing the case for easing. The projections will show the balance between those favoring one or two tactical cuts and those advocating a more prolonged easing cycle. A potential nominee could dissent for a larger cut and some presidential appointees might join, while hawkish dissents appear less likely.
Read at Axios
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