Gasoline prices exceed $4 per gallon amid Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure, while May 28, 2026 price data heightens policymaker concern about spillover into the broader economy. Month-to-month inflation rose less than expected, but year-over-year inflation increased 3.8%, the fastest pace since 2021. The less volatile measure excluding food and energy rose 3.3%. Underlying inflation remains elevated through housing, utilities, and recreational spending despite signs of a slowing economy and weaker income growth. Headline PCE reached 3.5% year over year in March 2026, up from 2.8% in February. Core PCE, excluding food and energy and viewed as a better predictor for where inflation is headed, has also been rising this year.
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